Theme Leaders
One of the most robust findings in the conflict literature is that high temperatures, poor rainfall, droughts, and floods lead to an intensification of violence. However, the reverse relationship is also important, suggesting a vicious cycle that can only be broken by identifying causal micro-mechanisms and designing effective policy interventions.
This theme highlights six areas of focus for research:
- Climate Change Mechanisms. Since the nature and the geographical incidence of the weather shocks are changing over time, we need to understand the mechanisms through which climate shocks affect conflict to make predictions about the impact of climate shocks in the next decades based on historical data.
- Adaptation Strategies. Populations who are suffering from the increased frequency of extreme weather events could develop strategies (e.g., crop choices, investments in human capital, migration etc.), which can mitigate or exacerbate the impact of weather shocks.
- Impact on Supply Chains and Food Prices. Beyond its direct effects on local agricultural production, climate change will also affect global prices for agricultural commodities. This can trigger an opportunity cost channel where agricultural commodity price boom could spur conflict.
- Policy Interventions and Institutional Designs. There is a clear scope for future research that causally evaluates how development interventions and institutional factors affect the impact of climate change in specific settings.
- The Role of the Green Transition. The green transition is likely to shape conflict patterns, as it will profoundly affect the natural resource sector. The rapacity mechanisms induced by natural resource shocks deserve more attention.
- Turning the Natural Resource Curse Into a Blessing. There is plenty of scope for a range of policy-oriented work on the role of natural resources and on how policies can offer an escape from the so called “natural resource curse”.